The Perils of Prediction
Michael Gove once said, “I’ve had enough of experts.”
The inaccuracy of predictions is fascinating. The more seriously an expert takes themselves, the more themselves, the more likely they are to be hilariously wrong. Economists often make astrology look respectable, but what about other forecasters?
Consider these examples:
Back in 1943, Tom Watson, President of IBM – which, 20 years later, would command 80 per cent of the world computer market – wrote, “There’s a world market for maybe five computers.” IBM later invented the personal computer but did nothing with it, leaving the market to college drop-out Steve Jobs – who showed that the personal PC might actually have its uses.
In 1946, the great Darryl F. Zanuck, head of 20th Century Fox, claimed, “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
In 1953, Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt Vacuum Cleaners, declared, “Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will be a reality within 10 years.”
Ken Olsen, founder and president of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), a dominant force in computing in the 1970s, said, “There’s no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home.”
In 1995, Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, declared, “I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.”
In 1997, Nathan Myhrvold, chief technology officer at Microsoft, announced, “Apple is already dead.”
Freeze or Fry?
Climate forecasting, however, is in a class of its own. Few subjects are as polarizing – in some circles, if you’re perceived to be a denier it can be career-cancelling and friendship-busting.
I go back a long way with this subject, which was already a red-hot topic in the 1970s. The only difference was that, back then, it was all about global cooling. A new ice age was on its way and the statistics proved it beyond doubt. Indeed, Corporal Frazer in Dad’s Army was right all along – “We’re all doomed!”
Without apology, newspapers such as The Guardian and The New York Times dramatically changed their views just after the millennium.
So, let’s take a look at 40 years of eco-apocalyptic predictions that never came to pass:
1. In 1970, the Boston Globe ran the headline, “Scientist Predicts a New Ice Age by 21st Century” (reporting the warning of PC Lodge, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research).
2. In 1971, the Washington Post reported, “Disastrous New Ice Age Coming” – quoting NASA scientist SI Rasool.
3. In 1973, a Brown University letter to President Nixon warned of global cooling.
4. In 1974, The Guardian ran the headline, “Space satellites show New Ice Age Coming Fast.”
5. In 1974, Time magazine published “Another Ice Age?”, noting that since the 1940s, the temperature had dropped by 2.7°F.
6. In 1976, climatologist Stephen Schneider of the University of Wisconsin lamented “the deaf ear” his warnings of an Ice Age had received.
7. In 2004, The Guardian reported how the Pentagon had warned President Bush that “Climate change will destroy us” – and that Britain could face a Siberian climate in less than 20 years.
The Great Switcheroo
In a remarkable change of direction, we went from “global cooling will kill us all” to “global warming will fry us all”. Consider the following:
1. In 2008, the Associated Press reported a NASA scientist’s claim that within five to ten years, the Arctic could be free of summer sea ice.
2. In 2008, Al Gore warned that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by 2013.
3. In 2009, Prince Charles warned in The Independent, “Just 96 months to save the world… The price of capitalism is just too high.”
4. In 2009, Gordon Brown – referring to the need for a global agreement at the Copenhagen climate summit – wrote in The Independent, “We have fewer than 50 days to save our planet from catastrophe.”
5. In 2013, The Guardian ran the headline, “Ice-free Arctic in two years heralds methane catastrophe – scientist.” The article reported a warning that an ice-free summer Arctic could trigger the release of a 50-gigatonne pulse of methane capable of destabilising the climate system.
6. In 2013, The Guardian reported, “US Navy Predicts Ice-free Arctic by 2016”. We are reassured that “the US Navy’s department of oceanography uses complex modelling to make its forecasts more accurate than others.” (Ho Ho.)
7. In 2014, French foreign minister Laurent Fabius – referring to the time remaining before the 2015 Paris climate conference – claimed, “We have 500 days to avoid climate chaos.”
So, who will throw something at Greta Thunberg if she changes her mind and starts campaigning to warn us of an imminent ice age?
I wonder when the Italian saying, Io non c’ero, e se c’ero dormivo (“I wasn’t there and if I was, I was asleep”) might come in handy?